\u003cdiv class=\"rich_media_content\"\u003e\u003c!--VIDEO_0--\u003e\u003cspan style=\"text-align: center;font-size: 13px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136); line-height: 14px;margin-bottom: 22px;margin-top: 8px; display: block;\"\u003e\u003c!--NO_READ_BEGIN--\u003e纳德拉丨做客All-In：谈AI领域激烈竞争、与OpenAI合作\u003c!--NO_READ_END--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; margin: 0px\"\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(145, 145, 145); font-size: 14px; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1em; margin: 13px 0px 0px; padding-left: 14px; text-align: left\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(145, 145, 145)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 14px\"\u003e作者 | 褚杏娟\t\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e最近的达沃斯论坛上，科技领袖们纷纷出来发表观点。当 Google 的 Demis Hassabis 和 Anthropic 的 Dario Amodei 在讨论更宏观的 \u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_0--\u003eAGI\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_0--\u003e 话题时，微软 CEO Satya Nadella 与英国前首相 Rishi Sunak 的对话，更聚焦在了 AI 应用的话题。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eSatya 以自己参加达沃斯的准备工作变化为例，来说明在企业内部，AI 正在打破传统层级架构，让信息流实现扁平化。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cblockquote\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: left\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e“自从我 1992 年参加以来，直到几年前，流程都没什么变化：我的现场团队会准备笔记，然后送到总部进一步提炼。但现在我直接找 \u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_1--\u003eCopilot\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_1--\u003e 说，‘我要见 xxx，给我一个简介’。它会给我一个全方位的视角。”“我做的是立即把这个简介分享给所有部门的同事?！盶u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/blockquote\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e他指出，企业 AI 应用呈现出明显的 “杠杆效应”：初创公司能从零开始构建适配 AI 的组织，落地速度更快；大型企业虽手握数据、资源优势，但传统工作流程与组织惯性带来的变革管理挑战更大。而无论大小企业，都需经历 “思维转变 — 技能培养 — 数据整合” 的艰苦过程。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e人才方面，他认为全球 AI 技术人才与初创公司的质量已无显著差异：“雅加达、伊斯坦布尔的人才技术水平并不逊色于西雅图、旧金山?！?#30495正的差距在于大规模应用的推进力度。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eSatya 表示，判断 AI 是否存在泡沫，关键也在于落地应用：若仅停留在科技公司的技术讨论，泡沫风险确实存在；但当 AI 加速药物临床试验、提升农业生产效率、优化公共服务时，技术就已转化为实实在在的经济价值。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e今天，Satya 参加 All-In Podcast 的采访也发布了，这次谈话与 Rishi 那次比，有部分话题重合，但也更微观一些。他谈到，科技行业每十年换一批竞争对手是好事，能倒逼企业保持竞争力，科技产业蛋糕会持续变大，绝非零和博弈。而微软与 OpenAI 合作的核心逻辑：不押注单一模型，而是打造算力 + 应用服务器层的平台，兼容多模型生态。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e他还提到，公司内部全球网络团队已用 \u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_2--\u003eAI Agent\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_2--\u003e（\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_3--\u003e数字员工\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_3--\u003e）自动化处理光纤挖断、设备故障等 DevOps 重复工作，完全是自下而上的落地实践。此外还将 LinkedIn 等团队各角色合并为“\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_4--\u003e全栈构建者\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_4--\u003e”，重构 AI 产品工作流。现在，微软正在尝试新\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_5--\u003e学徒制模式\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_5--\u003e：由资深 IC 工程师带一组应届生，借助 AI 加速新人生产力爬坡，以适配 AI 时代的人才培养方式，新人仍需持续进入职场。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_0--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_0--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_0--\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e国际竞争方面，他认为，美国技术栈的核心优势是生态效应（平台之上生态收入远超自身收入），而非单纯市场份额，技术“\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_6--\u003e扩散\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_6--\u003e”是做大全球蛋糕，而非抢蛋糕。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003ci\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e我们翻译并整理了这次访谈内容，并在不改变原意基础上进行了删减，以飨读者。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 20px; font-weight: 400; margin: 0px; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(66, 133, 244)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: initial\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e移民政策下的一段“奇妙经历”\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eJason：今天非常高兴，能请到重量级嘉宾 Satya Nadella，Microsoft 的第三任 CEO，和我们的 AI 与加密领域负责人 David Sacks 来一场即兴炉边对话。Satya 出生在印度，大学毕业后来到美国，这一路经历本身就很传奇。你在书里写过，为了把太太接来美国，还专门“折返”了一趟。能不能简单和大家讲讲当时是怎么回事？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eSatya：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e?这件事其实是美国移民政策下的一段“奇妙经历”。我和太太在印度读的是同一所大学，后来我来美国读研究生，我们结了婚。我拿到了绿卡，但问题是由于我们是结婚后才申请，她反而不能直接过来。结果就是，我不得不放弃已经拿到的绿卡。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e最有意思的是，我去新德里的美国使馆，问工作人员：“请问放弃绿卡要排哪一队？”他们直接说：“没有这种队伍?！?#22312九十年代，主动放弃绿卡绝对算是件“疯狂”的事。但为了让她能以 H1 签证过来，只能这么操作。好在最后一切都解决了，现在想起来更像是一段久远但有点荒诞的回忆。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eJason：我想聊聊 Copilot。你们最早在 GitHub 上推出 Copilot，后来做到桌面端，再到直接把它放进 Windows，这对 Microsoft 来说是个非常大胆的决定。我每天都在用。但老实说，在它还不能真正理解文件系统、也没法和应用深度交互之前，市场反应不温不火。不过现在你们明显在持续加码。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e在我看来，面向知识工作者，AI 正在走向三种形态：一类是 Elon 在 xAI 做的那种“人类模拟器”，据说直接把“虚拟员工”塞进聊天和邮箱系统；一类是 Claude 刚发布的协作型 Agent，强得离谱，很多人已经被震住了，我自己连续玩了四十多个小时。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e那 Microsoft 的愿景是什么？知识工作者究竟该怎么真正把这些东西用起来？现在大家更多还是在“玩 ChatGPT”，这和真正创造商业价值之间好像还有一道鸿沟。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eSatya：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e?要理解这些不同形态，最好的切入点其实是编程，代码工作几乎是最典型的知识工作。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e回头看这条演进路线：最早是“Next Edit Suggestions”，也就是智能补全。老实说，我对这一代 AI 技术真正建立信心，就是从早期 Codex 那一代模型开始的。那还是 GPT-3.5 之前，但补全已经相当准确了。后来我们有了 chat 交互，再往后是可执行的 actions，现在则是全自主 Agent。这些 Agent 既可以在前台，也可以在后台；可以在云端，也可以在本地运行。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_1--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_1--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_1--\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e有意思的是，这些形态今天在编程中都有，而且你会全部用到，而非只选其中一种。比如我在 CLI 里，可以有前台 Agent、后台 Agent，同时直接在 VS Code 里改代码，这些全部并行进行。这说明了不同形态是可以组合的。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e把这套放到知识工作上也是一样。我们是从 chat 开始，带推理的 chat 不只是一问一答，你能看到它完整的思考过程；现在到了 actions 阶段，通过模拟电脑操作、Skill 和 Agent 调用调用来执行任务，这就是 Copilot 如今的状况。\u003c!--AI_AD_1000--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e接下来，其实需要一个新的“隐喻”来理解 AI 时代的计算机。Jobs 当年形容 PC 是“思维的自行车”；Bill Gates 说过一句我很喜欢的话：“信息触手可及”。但在 AI 时代，我们需要新的说法。我很喜欢 Notion CEO 的一个比喻：“无限思维的管理者”。这个说法非常形象。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eJason：确实是个很棒的产品。不过你们还没收购它。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eSatya：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e?还没有（笑）。但这个比喻点中了关键：你同时在和大量 Agent 协作。我自己还常用两个词：宏观委派和微观引导，即你把一整块工作交出去，同时在执行过程中不断给细节指令。写代码其实已经是这样了。这正是今天 Copilot 的真实状态。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e还有一种我特别期待的形态，很快你们就会看到：开发者并不是只待在自己的 repo 里。我们要开会、写设计文档、实现别人写好的规格说明，还要保证代码和这些内容一致。这就意味着，Copilot 需要能通过 MCP Server 之类的方式，把我的工作流、待办事项、上下文全部拉进来。这才是真正的知识工作“组合”。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e安全领域也是一样。一个安全工程师面对的是海量日志：把日志放进文件系统、用代码分析、生成仪表盘，这些都是 AI 能大幅放大的知识工作场景。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 20px; font-weight: 400; margin: 0px; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(66, 133, 244)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: initial\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e数字员工如何进入企业\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eJason：那“数字员工”“数字同事”这种概念呢？是不是也在你们的规划里？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eSatya：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e?核心问题其实是“身份”。我们推出了 Agent 365，就是把今天给人用的身份体系、终端防护体系，扩展到 Agent 身上。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eJason：也就是说，你可以“克隆”一个我，让他在 HR 或市场部里工作？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eSatya：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e?没错。在 Office 体系里完全可以做到。这里有两种模式：一种是，每个知识工作者都拥有“无限个大脑”；另一种是，创造完全独立于你个人身份的 Agent。而身份这件事非常关键，权限、决策、责任追溯等全都依赖它。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eJason：说到底，就是搞清楚“谁对谁做了什么”。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eSatya：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e?正是如此。对任何组织来说，最重要的问题之一就是：工作是谁完成的、怎么完成的、来源是什么、能不能追溯，所以要么是“人 + 一堆 Agent”，由人来做宏观委派、微观引导，要么就是一个完全独立的身份在运作。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eJason：过去几年，Microsoft 的员工数量基本没变，但收入多了 900 亿美元，利润还翻了一倍。你们也像 Alphabet、Meta 一样，削掉了不少中间管理层。这是因为自动化？还是以前人确实有点多？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eSatya：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e?你抓住了一个非常关键的问题。我认为，这是自 PC 普及以来，知识工作最大的结构性变化。想想 PC 之前，一家跨国公司怎么做预测？传真、内部备忘录满天飞，最后凑出一份结果。后来 PC 成了标配，Excel + Email，让流程和产出物全变了，今天正在发生同样级别的变化。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e举个例子，在 LinkedIn，我们以前有产品经理、设计师、前端工程师、后端工程师，后来我们把前面这些角色合并、扩大职责范围，统一成“全栈构建者”。这是结构性的调整，它改变了工作本身，也改变了工作流。\u003c!--AI_AD_2000--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eJason：沟通成本一下就下来了，速度自然更快，一个人就能“vibe coding”。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eSatya：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e?没错，而且 AI 产品本身也有一套全新的工作流：从评测、到科学建模，再到基础设施。评测和产品由新的“全栈型 PM / Builder”完成，系统工程师负责支撑后端科学和基础设施，这是一个全新的闭环，必须从组织结构上去适配。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e当然，对 Microsoft 来说，我们不可能只活在未来。现在，我们要一边把 Windows 的热补丁做好、质量做到位；一边还要持续提升 Copilot 的评测体系和质量，这两件事都必须是第一优先级的。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 20px; font-weight: 400; margin: 0px; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(66, 133, 244)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: initial\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e“每十年换一批竞争对手”\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eJason：这大概是你职业生涯里最具挑战性的阶段吧？过去 Microsoft 在很多领域是双寡头甚至垄断，但现在面对的竞争完全不一样。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eSatya：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e?确实非常激烈。但我一直觉得，每十年换一批竞争对手，其实是好事，它能让你保持“体能”。我 1992 年加入 Microsoft，那时最大的对手是 Novell；现在是 2026 年，环境完全不同。竞争很残酷，但从 GDP 占比来看，五年后科技产业一定更大，这不是一个零和游戏。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eJason：蛋糕在变大。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eSatya：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e?而且会大得多。整个技术栈对社会的影响会极其深远。最终的问题是 Microsoft 的品牌定位是什么？客户期待我们提供什么？有时候我们会误以为，所有客户对所有厂商的期待都是一样的，但真正重要的是弄清楚客户“希望从你这里得到什么”。这其实是 Peter Thiel 那个观点的另一种表达：不是逃避竞争，而是通过理解客户，找到你真正不可替代的位置。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eDavid：这次在达沃斯，既有不少国家领导人，也有大量《财富》世界五百强公司的 CEO。昨晚晚宴上，有人问你一个问题：他们该如何看待 AI，怎样才能真正把 AI 用好。我记得你当时提到了“扩散（diffusion）”这个词，这一点和我最近参与的一些政策研究高度契合。能不能展开讲讲你的想法？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eSatya\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e：当然可以。事实上，你们一直在做一件非常重要的事，就是确保以美国为代表的技术栈，能在全球范围内被广泛采用、并且被信任。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e回过头来看，技术本身只是起点，真正的价值来自于被大规模、深入地使用。我一直很喜欢一项研究，是 Diego Comin 做的，研究的是工业革命时期各国是如何实现领先的。结论其实很简单：那些把最新技术引入本国，并在此基础上做价值叠加的国家，最终跑得最快。说白了，不要重复造轮子，而是先用最先进的，再在上面持续创新。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e这正是“扩散”的意义所在。像 AI 这样的通用型技术，关键在于能不能真正铺开。就拿美国来说，技术我们已经有了，但问题是：它有没有进入医疗？有没有进入金融？有没有进入所有行业？不只是大企业，也包括中小企业和公共部门。如果看不到这种广泛而密集的应用，就谈不上真正的成功。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e现在我们正处在这样一个阶段：AI 正在更快地“扩散”。你们做的那些政策层面的工作其实非常关键。好消息是，技术已经成熟了，云计算和移动互联网这些“基础设施轨道”早就铺好了，这让 AI 的传播成为可能。现在真正的问题不在算力能不能拿到，而在于具体的应用场景是什么，以及组织如何管理随之而来的变化。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e在达沃斯，还有一个常被提起的问题：发达国家之外，全球南方怎么办？我反而觉得这里蕴含着巨大的机会。在很多全球南方国家，公共部门在 GDP 中的占比非常高。想象一下，如果 AI 能显著提升政府把纳税人资金转化为公共服务的效率，哪怕只提升一点点，那可能就是几个百分点的 GDP 增长。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e所以我非常乐观，我认为会形成一种强烈的拉动力，而美国也应该把我们已有的技术栈，推动在欧洲、亚洲、南美、非洲等地广泛落地。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eDavid：我经常被问到一个问题：这场 AI 竞赛，怎么判断谁在赢？或者美国是不是领先全球？我给出的答案很直接：看市场份额。如果几年后我们放眼全球，看到美国公司的技术占据了绝大多数市场，那说明我们做对了；如果看到全球到处用的都是中国的芯片和模型，那可能就意味着我们输了。说到底，使用情况才是最真实的检验标准。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eSatya\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e：我同意。但你也在 Microsoft 工作过几年，应该记得 Bill Gates 对“平台”的理解。对我来说，除了市场份额，更重要的是生态效应。美国一直以来的优势，不只是本国公司的收入规模，而是围绕平台形成的完整生态。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e我在 Microsoft 学到的一点是，每次去一个国家访问，最先看的不是我们卖了多少软件，而是围绕 Microsoft 平台，在当地创造了多少就业岗位。比如有多少渠道伙伴、多少 ISV、多少相关的 IT 从业者。我们有一整套指标，衡量一个国家的生态是如何围绕平台建立起来的。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e这正是美国技术栈过去在全球，包括在中国，能够被广泛采用的原因：当地公司能在上面构建自己的产品和业务。这种事情还会再次发生。所以你们推动“扩散”的工作，本质上不是在抢蛋糕，而是在把蛋糕做大，增强对平台的信任，从而带来真正的经济机会。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eDavid：你这么一说，我确实想起了一些往事。那还是十多年前，Yammer 被 Microsoft 收购，我们并入了 SharePoint 团队。当时产品经理们非常自豪的一点是：围绕 SharePoint 的生态收入，即非 Microsoft 的咨询公司、实施伙伴创造的收入，其规模是 Microsoft 自身软件收入的好几倍。Bill 也说过一句话：只有当平台之上的收入，显著超过平台自身的收入时，你才算真正拥有一个生态。所以，当我们谈“扩散”，希望美国保持领先地位，并不意味着这对世界其他地方是坏事。恰恰相反，其他国家和公司可以在这个平台之上创造出更大的价值。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_2--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_2--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_2--\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eSatya\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e：完全同意。这一点非常关键。这不是“美国技术、美国收入”的问题，而是在用一个新平台在全球范围内创造机会。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e我 90 年代做数据库产品时，和 SAP 有过深度合作。SQL Server 和 R/3 的结合，对双方都是巨大的成功。大家常提 Intel 和 Microsoft，但对我个人成长影响很深的一件事其实是和一家欧洲软件巨头的合作。放到今天也是一样，谁知道下一个伟大的 AI 应用会出现在哪里？我始终相信，即便基于美国的技术栈，世界各地都可能诞生顶级的科技公司。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 16px; margin: 0px\"\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 20px; margin: 0px; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(66, 133, 244)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: initial\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e与 \u003c!--SECURE_LINK_BEGIN_0--\u003eOpenAI\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_END_0--\u003e 合作背后：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(66, 133, 244)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: initial\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e所有公司、应用会同时用多种模型\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(63, 63, 63)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eJason：你不仅是技术领袖，也是一位非常出色的并购操盘手，这一点其实被外界低估了。你和 Sam Altman、OpenAI 的合作，被认为既高明又充满争议。有人说，这笔交易可能让 Microsoft 获得巨额回报，但也有人质疑：你是不是亲手培养了一个未来最强的竞争对手？尤其是考虑到 Microsoft 过去错过了移动互联网浪潮，你们为什么不自己做一个 Gemini、xAI 或 Claude？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_3--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_3--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_3--\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eSatya\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e：我理解这种疑问。很多人问我：你们自己的基础模型在哪里？从知识产权角度说，我们确实拥有相关能力，但更重要的是，Microsoft 现在的战略有几个层面。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e首先，我们要把“\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_7--\u003e算力工厂\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_7--\u003e”做好。Azure 是我们最大的业务之一，而随着 AI 的发展，它的市场空间会变得极其庞大，这要求我们在异构基础设施管理、软件调度和资源利用率上做到极致。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e其次，是应用服务器层。未来，每个人都在构建 Agent，有强化学习环境、有评测体系，就像每一代平台都会有自己的应用服务器一样。我们现在在做的 Foundry，就是这个定位。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e在这一层里，有一点已经非常清楚：任何应用、任何公司，最终都会同时使用多种模型。为什么不用呢，甚至在一个具体任务里，编排多个模型协同工作，效果往往比单一的前沿模型更好。我们在医疗领域做过一个“决策编排”的实践，仅仅通过给模型分配不同角色再进行协同，就能显著提升结果质量。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eJason：那是不是可以理解为，你其实看好开源模型，认为大模型本身会逐渐商品化，真正的价值不在这里？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eSatya\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e：我更愿意把它类比成数据库市场。最早大家觉得数据库就是 SQL，后来才发现并不是。关系型、文档型、NoSQL，各种数据库层出不穷，甚至出现了大量开源项目和围绕它们建立的公司。模型也会是类似的演进路径，会有闭源的前沿模型，也会有达到前沿水平的开源模型。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e接下来一个非常重要的方向是：企业能否把自身的隐性知识，真正嵌入到自己掌控的模型权重中。有人问我未来会有多少模型，我的回答是：可能和世界上有多少家公司一样多。这听起来极端，但在我看来，这正是“知识经济”向“AI 经济”转变的方式。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eJason：那你有没有在 Windows 桌面上，悄悄推进一个本地运行的大模型？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eSatya\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e：其实已经在发生了，现在已经有完全驻留在本地、基于 NPU 和 GPU 的模型。高性能工作站正在回归，这本身就是一件非常有意思的事。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eJason： 明白了。所以 Microsoft 当然会重视 PC，这毕竟是你们的主场，有完整的桌面生态。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eSatya：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e?是的，本质上这是个商业问题。我们一直认为“形态”非常重要。我常开玩笑说，我的职业生涯是从命令行开始的，说不定最后也会回到命令行。但不管怎样，形态一直在演进。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eJason： 你当年起步时用的是 Sun 那种最早的工作站，价格五千到一万美元。你能想象有一天，你会向客户推荐一台一万到两万美元的桌面机，里面内置 LLM 和强悍硬件吗？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eSatya：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e?完全有可能。你可以插一张 DGX 卡，做出一台非常强的机器。其实在模型架构上，我们可能只差一次关键调整就能实现某种分布式模型架构，比如真正能自我调度的 MoE 架构。这类突破会彻底改变“混合 AI”该是什么样子。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e但不管怎样，我们非常明确：PC 必须成为本地模型的最佳载体。本地模型可以承担大量 prompt 处理，再按需调用云端能力。这里面还有大量工作空间，这也是我们正在坚定推进的方向。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eDavid： 云与本地的协同已经证明了，能直接访问本地文件系统，本身就非常有价值。这让我想到 Yammer。很多人可能不知道 Yammer 当年最大的特点，是用消费级增长打法去攻企业软件。站在今天去看企业 AI 的采用，你觉得未来一年会怎么“扩散”？现在好像正处在一个关键点：会是自上而下，由 CEO 拍板、搞战略转型、走 RFP；还是自下而上，由一批 AI 原生员工先用起来，把工具带进工作中，做出惊人的成果？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_4--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_4--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_4--\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eSatya：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e?说实话，我觉得两种都会发生。自上而下的原因很简单：在客服、供应链、HR 自助这些场景里，AI 的 ROI 非常清晰，IT 和 CXO 很容易拍板，这也是目前最先落地的一波真实 AI 应用。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e但最终真正改变组织的，一定是自下而上的力量。回看 PC 的历史也是这样：最早是律师把 Word 带进公司、财务把 Excel 带进来，后来有了邮件，最后才变成标配。现在正在重演这个过程。比如说 Agent，现在几乎所有人都在做 Agent，本质是在重构工作流，把大量重复、枯燥的事情自动化掉，这正是自下而上转型的起点。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e说实话，我最兴奋的也是这种变化。以 Microsoft 为例，我们在全球管理着五百多个光纤运营点，尤其在亚洲。我自己以前都没意识到，这些所谓的 DevOps，其实很大一部分是物理资产：光纤会被挖断、设备会出故障。所谓 DevOps，很多时候就是在不停地发邮件问“这张光纤卡怎么了”“怎么修”。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e现在负责全球网络的同事，已经构建了一批“数字员工”，本质就是 Agent 在自动处理这些 DevOps 工作。这完全是自下而上的：工具已经在那里了，我就用它来做自动化，减少重复劳动，提高效率和质量。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e而这些能力最终能不能规模化，关键不在“学会没有”，而在“用不用”。所谓技能提升并不神秘，就是在实际使用中完成的。工具扩散、工具被真正用起来，这才是最重要的事情。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 20px; font-weight: 400; margin: 0px; text-align: center\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin-bottom: 24px\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(66, 133, 244)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: initial\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e“我们在尝试新的学徒制模式”\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eJason： 正因为如此，现在用这些工具去赋能现有员工，比招人、培养新人要容易得多。站在今天看，如果 Microsoft 规模不变，三、四十年后谁会接我的工作？你们是典型的技术优先公司，理论上已经没有太多理由继续增加员工数量，这几年你们也基本没扩张，只是在内部结构上做了调整。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e那你怎么看下一代？对那些现在还没拿到 Microsoft offer 的应届生，你会给什么建议？以前你花了很多精力去培养这群人，但现在好像没那么“奢侈”了。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003eSatya：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e?这是个好问题。现在确实有争论：职业早期会发生什么变化、校园招聘还重要吗？我依然坚定相信校园招聘，因为 AI 会彻底改变一个人掌握代码库、建立熟练度的速度。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e过去，新人进团队的爬坡期很长；现在不一样了，有文档、有技能库，还可以直接问 Agent，本质上就像身边有一个极其强大的导师帮你快速上手代码。换句话说，应届生的生产力曲线会比以往陡得多。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e我们也在尝试新的学徒制模式：让一位资深 IC 工程师带一组应届生一起工作，因为这本身就是一种全新的工作方式。以前大家进 Microsoft 后会去读 Dave Cutler 的代码，理解什么是顶级工程实践；而现在，\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e顶级实践更多体现在十倍、百倍工程师是如何借助 AI 打造高质量产品的\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e。对于这些经验，新一代毕业生会学得更快。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 18px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 1px\"\u003e对 Microsoft 这样的公司来说，这是好事。毕竟只要人类还没解决“永生”问题，我们就需要新人进入职场、在 Microsoft 成长。所以我们依然会积极投入，只是会确保岗位的边界和内容，让其既符合现有员工的期望，也符合新入职者的追求。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 27px; margin: 0px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 14px\"\u003e参考链接：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 27px; margin: 0px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(136, 136, 136)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 14px\"\u003ehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nCbHsCG334\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; margin: 0px\"\u003e\u003csection data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=\"wrap\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(63, 63, 63); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; margin: 0px\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"line-height: 27px; margin: 0px; padding: 23px 8px 0px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003ci\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\"color: rgb(74, 74, 74)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"font-size: 14px\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)\"\u003e\u003cspan style=\"letter-spacing: 0.544px\"\u003e声明：本文为 AI 前线整理，不代表平台观点，未经许可禁止转载。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/i\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cstyle\u003e.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .2)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .126)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #373737}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BG-0: 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81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(0, 125, 187, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care][data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care][data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111111;--weui-BG-1: #1E1E1E;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2C2C2C;--weui-BLUE-100: #10AEFF;--weui-BLUE-120: #0C8BCC;--weui-BLUE-170: #04344D;--weui-BLUE-80: #3FBEFF;--weui-BLUE-90: #28B6FF;--weui-BLUE-BG-100: #48A6E2;--weui-BLUE-BG-110: #4095CB;--weui-BLUE-BG-130: #32749E;--weui-BLUE-BG-90: #5AAFE4;--weui-BRAND-100: #07C160;--weui-BRAND-120: #059A4C;--weui-BRAND-170: #023A1C;--weui-BRAND-80: #38CD7F;--weui-BRAND-90: #20C770;--weui-BRAND-BG-100: #2AAE67;--weui-BRAND-BG-110: #259C5C;--weui-BRAND-BG-130: #1D7A48;--weui-BRAND-BG-90: #3EB575;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-0_5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-GLYPH-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-GLYPH-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-GLYPH-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-3: #FFFFFF;--weui-GREEN-100: #74A800;--weui-GREEN-120: #5C8600;--weui-GREEN-170: #233200;--weui-GREEN-80: #8FB933;--weui-GREEN-90: #82B01A;--weui-GREEN-BG-100: #789833;--weui-GREEN-BG-110: #6B882D;--weui-GREEN-BG-130: #65802B;--weui-GREEN-BG-90: #85A247;--weui-INDIGO-100: #1196FF;--weui-INDIGO-120: #0D78CC;--weui-INDIGO-170: #052D4D;--weui-INDIGO-80: #40ABFF;--weui-INDIGO-90: #28A0FF;--weui-INDIGO-BG-100: #0D78CC;--weui-INDIGO-BG-110: #0B6BB7;--weui-INDIGO-BG-130: #09548F;--weui-INDIGO-BG-90: #2585D1;--weui-LIGHTGREEN-100: #3EB575;--weui-LIGHTGREEN-120: #31905D;--weui-LIGHTGREEN-170: #123522;--weui-LIGHTGREEN-80: #64C390;--weui-LIGHTGREEN-90: #51BC83;--weui-LIGHTGREEN-BG-100: #31905D;--weui-LIGHTGREEN-BG-110: #2C8153;--weui-LIGHTGREEN-BG-130: #226541;--weui-LIGHTGREEN-BG-90: #31905D;--weui-LINK-100: #7D90A9;--weui-LINK-120: #647387;--weui-LINK-170: #252A32;--weui-LINK-80: #97A6BA;--weui-LINK-90: #899AB1;--weui-LINKFINDER-100: #DEE9FF;--weui-MATERIAL-ATTACHMENTCOLUMN: rgba(32, 32, 32, .93);--weui-MATERIAL-NAVIGATIONBAR: rgba(18, 18, 18, .9);--weui-MATERIAL-REGULAR: rgba(37, 37, 37, .6);--weui-MATERIAL-THICK: rgba(34, 34, 34, .9);--weui-MATERIAL-THIN: rgba(245, 245, 245, .4);--weui-MATERIAL-TOOLBAR: rgba(35, 35, 35, .93);--weui-ORANGE-100: #C87D2F;--weui-ORANGE-120: #A06425;--weui-ORANGE-170: #3B250E;--weui-ORANGE-80: #D39758;--weui-ORANGE-90: #CD8943;--weui-ORANGE-BG-100: #BB6000;--weui-ORANGE-BG-110: #A85600;--weui-ORANGE-BG-130: #824300;--weui-ORANGE-BG-90: #C1701A;--weui-ORANGERED-100: 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#D1A519;--weui-YELLOW-BG-100: #BF9100;--weui-YELLOW-BG-110: #AB8200;--weui-YELLOW-BG-130: #866500;--weui-YELLOW-BG-90: #C59C1A;--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-RED: #FA5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #FF6146;--weui-ORANGE: #C87D2F;--weui-YELLOW: #CC9C00;--weui-GREEN: #74A800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3EB575;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259C5C;--weui-BRAND: #07C160;--weui-BLUE: #10AEFF;--weui-INDIGO: #1196FF;--weui-PURPLE: #8183FF;--weui-LINK: #7D90A9;--weui-REDORANGE: #FF6146;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05);--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 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#07C160;--weui-BRAND-120: #059A4C;--weui-BRAND-170: #023A1C;--weui-BRAND-80: #38CD7F;--weui-BRAND-90: #20C770;--weui-BRAND-BG-100: #2AAE67;--weui-BRAND-BG-110: #259C5C;--weui-BRAND-BG-130: #1D7A48;--weui-BRAND-BG-90: #3EB575;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-0_5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-GLYPH-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-GLYPH-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-GLYPH-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-3: #FFFFFF;--weui-GREEN-100: #74A800;--weui-GREEN-120: #5C8600;--weui-GREEN-170: #233200;--weui-GREEN-80: #8FB933;--weui-GREEN-90: #82B01A;--weui-GREEN-BG-100: #789833;--weui-GREEN-BG-110: #6B882D;--weui-GREEN-BG-130: #65802B;--weui-GREEN-BG-90: #85A247;--weui-INDIGO-100: 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.1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--new-title-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--new-content-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, .7)}}@media screen and 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#FF6146;--weui-OVERLAY: rgba(0, 0, 0, .8);--weui-OVERLAY-WHITE: rgba(242, 242, 242, .8);--weui-PURPLE-100: #8183FF;--weui-PURPLE-120: #6768CC;--weui-PURPLE-170: #26274C;--weui-PURPLE-80: #9A9BFF;--weui-PURPLE-90: #8D8FFF;--weui-PURPLE-BG-100: #6768CC;--weui-PURPLE-BG-110: #5C5DB7;--weui-PURPLE-BG-130: #48498F;--weui-PURPLE-BG-90: #7677D1;--weui-RED-100: #FA5151;--weui-RED-120: #C84040;--weui-RED-170: #4B1818;--weui-RED-80: #FB7373;--weui-RED-90: #FA6262;--weui-RED-BG-100: #CF5148;--weui-RED-BG-110: #BA4940;--weui-RED-BG-130: #913832;--weui-RED-BG-90: #D3625A;--weui-SECONDARY-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-SEPARATOR-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05);--weui-SEPARATOR-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-STATELAYER-HOVERED: rgba(0, 0, 0, .02);--weui-STATELAYER-PRESSED: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-STATELAYER-PRESSEDSTRENGTHENED: rgba(255, 255, 255, .2);--weui-YELLOW-100: #CC9C00;--weui-YELLOW-120: #A37C00;--weui-YELLOW-170: #3D2F00;--weui-YELLOW-80: #D6AF33;--weui-YELLOW-90: #D1A519;--weui-YELLOW-BG-100: #BF9100;--weui-YELLOW-BG-110: #AB8200;--weui-YELLOW-BG-130: #866500;--weui-YELLOW-BG-90: #C59C1A;--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-RED: #FA5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #FF6146;--weui-ORANGE: #C87D2F;--weui-YELLOW: #CC9C00;--weui-GREEN: #74A800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3EB575;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259C5C;--weui-BRAND: #07C160;--weui-BLUE: #10AEFF;--weui-INDIGO: #1196FF;--weui-PURPLE: #8183FF;--weui-LINK: #7D90A9;--weui-REDORANGE: #FF6146;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05);--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111111;--weui-BG-1: #1E1E1E;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2C2C2C;--weui-BLUE-100: #10AEFF;--weui-BLUE-120: #0C8BCC;--weui-BLUE-170: #04344D;--weui-BLUE-80: #3FBEFF;--weui-BLUE-90: #28B6FF;--weui-BLUE-BG-100: #48A6E2;--weui-BLUE-BG-110: #4095CB;--weui-BLUE-BG-130: #32749E;--weui-BLUE-BG-90: #5AAFE4;--weui-BRAND-100: #07C160;--weui-BRAND-120: #059A4C;--weui-BRAND-170: #023A1C;--weui-BRAND-80: #38CD7F;--weui-BRAND-90: #20C770;--weui-BRAND-BG-100: #2AAE67;--weui-BRAND-BG-110: #259C5C;--weui-BRAND-BG-130: #1D7A48;--weui-BRAND-BG-90: #3EB575;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-0_5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-GLYPH-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-GLYPH-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-GLYPH-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-GLYPH-WHITE-3: #FFFFFF;--weui-GREEN-100: #74A800;--weui-GREEN-120: #5C8600;--weui-GREEN-170: #233200;--weui-GREEN-80: #8FB933;--weui-GREEN-90: #82B01A;--weui-GREEN-BG-100: #789833;--weui-GREEN-BG-110: #6B882D;--weui-GREEN-BG-130: #65802B;--weui-GREEN-BG-90: #85A247;--weui-INDIGO-100: #1196FF;--weui-INDIGO-120: #0D78CC;--weui-INDIGO-170: #052D4D;--weui-INDIGO-80: #40ABFF;--weui-INDIGO-90: #28A0FF;--weui-INDIGO-BG-100: #0D78CC;--weui-INDIGO-BG-110: #0B6BB7;--weui-INDIGO-BG-130: #09548F;--weui-INDIGO-BG-90: #2585D1;--weui-LIGHTGREEN-100: #3EB575;--weui-LIGHTGREEN-120: #31905D;--weui-LIGHTGREEN-170: #123522;--weui-LIGHTGREEN-80: 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